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The Historic Decoupling between the US and China in the Trade Wars
A concrete agreement has finally been reached in the long-standing U.S.-China trade war. Following a critical meeting held in Geneva, both parties decided to significantly reduce high tariffs for a period of 90 days. The tone of the meeting and the messages conveyed suggest that this ceasefire could be a sign of permanent normalization rather than just a short-term pause.Sharp Tax Cuts: From 145% to 30%, From 125% to 10%According to the signed agreement:The U.S. reduced its 145% customs tariff on goods imported from China to 30%.China reduced its 125% tariff on American goods to 10%.These regulations will come into effect on May 14 and remain valid for 90 days. Automotive, steel, aluminum, and certain pharmaceutical products are excluded from this reduction.Trump: “Tariffs Will Not Go Back to 145%, This Is a Reset Process”U.S. President Donald Trump announced after the Geneva meeting that they have initiated a “complete reset process” in trade with China. He stated:“We had a very good meeting with China. We agreed on many issues. We want China to open up to American business.”Trump also emphasized that even if a new trade deal cannot be reached after this 90-day period, the tariffs will not be raised back to 145%.White House: New Agreements ComingAccording to White House sources, additional trade agreements with different countries could be announced later this week. The trade team is working on “groundbreaking” new deals with countries they are still negotiating with.Markets Reacted SwiftlyWith the announcement of the agreement, a wave of optimism spread through global financial markets. Stocks in U.S. markets surged rapidly. The Dow Jones index rose by over a thousand points, while the Nasdaq saw gains exceeding 4%, led by technology companies. Notably, shares of firms with strong supply ties to China, such as Apple, Amazon, and Dell, saw significant increases.A Turning Point for Inflation and Global TradeThe high tariffs imposed during the trade war period created significant pressure on production costs. This new agreement is expected not only to ease trade between the two countries but also to revitalize global supply chains. It is also anticipated to exert downward pressure on inflation.This agreement could have positive effects for open economies like Turkey as well. In particular, potential normalization in the prices of industrial inputs could reflect positively on producer and consumer price indices.Could the 90-Day Period Mark a New Chapter?Of course, this step is not a final agreement. But the shift in diplomatic tone, the mutual gestures, and both parties’ preference for “temporary flexibility over permanent damage” are noteworthy. If this atmosphere is maintained, the temporary implementation over three months could pave the way for a more comprehensive agreement.This contact in Geneva is not just a technical adjustment for the global economy, but also a psychological relief. It could signal a transition to a period where trade wars recede and cooperation takes precedence. If the parties can turn this ceasefire into a lasting agreement, not only their own economies but global markets as a whole could benefit from the process.
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12 May 2025
Daily Market Summary with JrKripto 11 May 2025
You can find today’s “Daily Market with JrKripto,” where we’ve compiled the most important developments in global and local markets, below. Let’s analyze the general market conditions together and take a look at the latest evaluations.Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $104,300. Following a strong uptrend that started from the $75,930 level, BTC continued its rise by breaking through the $101,059 resistance and then the $104,000 level. If this upward move continues, the next potential targets are $108,000 and $109,850. However, in the event of short-term profit-taking, $101,059 should be monitored as the first support level. If BTC falls below this level, the $96,115 and $94,570 support zones could come into play. To maintain the strength of the trend, it is important for BTC to stay above $101,000.Ethereum (ETH), on the other hand, has risen to the $2,550 level. The strong rally that started from the $1,486 support has accelerated after surpassing the $2,453 resistance. If this uptrend continues, $2,595 and subsequently $2,981 could be the next resistance targets. In case of a potential correction, $2,453 has now become the first support level. If this level is breached, the $2,095 and $1,790 support levels may come back into focus. To sustain the positive outlook for ETH, holding above $2,453 is crucial.Crypto NewsTrump announced that he will sign an executive order to lower drug prices.China will reduce tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days!The U.S. has reduced its tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.Zelensky: I will wait for Putin in Turkey on Thursday.“I expect a full, permanent ceasefire starting tomorrow.”The White House stated that more trade deals might be announced this week.OpenAI is in talks with Microsoft for new funding and a potential future IPO.Top Gainers:MOODENG → Up 65.5% to $0.26478145PI → Up 56.8% to $1.54TOSHI → Up 36.8% to $0.00085043WIF → Up 36.5% to $1.22GOAT → Up 35.8% to $0.22228838Top Losers:SYRUP → Down 8.7% to $0.27339711DEXE → Down 5.5% to $13.23BORG → Down 5.0% to $0.24050204QGOLD → Down 3.2% to $3,221.53PAXG → Down 3.1% to $3,228.13Fear Index:Bitcoin: 70 (Greed)Ethereum: 60 (Greed)Dominance:Bitcoin: 62.93% ▼ 0.36%Ethereum: 9.22% ▼ 0.49%Daily Net ETF Inflows:BTC ETFs: $321.40 MillionETH ETFs: $17.60 MillionGlobal MarketsThis morning, global stock markets are trading positively amid optimism stemming from progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations and a ceasefire between Pakistan and India. Statements made after weekend talks between the U.S. and China indicate that the trade war, which has caused uncertainty in the markets since the beginning of the year, may be nearing resolution. U.S. President Donald Trump announced on social media that significant progress has been made between the two countries, which would benefit both sides. He also stated that drug prices would be reduced by between 30% and 80%.U.S. stock indices closed flat on the last trading day of the week (Friday), but futures are trading with strong buying interest this morning due to the positive tone of the talks. On the economic data front, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, due on Tuesday, and the Producer Price Index (PPI), scheduled for Thursday, will be in focus. In corporate earnings, Cisco Systems on Wednesday and Walmart and Alibaba on Thursday will be watched closely. Geopolitically, the ceasefire between Pakistan and India has helped reduce regional risks. Asian markets have started the week positively, and European markets are also expected to open with strong gains. Overall, global markets are showing a positive trend this week thanks to growing trade optimism and easing geopolitical risks.Most Valuable Companies and Stock Prices:Microsoft (MSFT) → $3.26T market cap, $438.73 per share, up 0.13%Apple (AAPL) → $2.97T market cap, $198.53 per share, up 0.53%NVIDIA (NVDA) → $2.84T market cap, $116.65 per share, down 0.61%Amazon (AMZN) → $2.05T market cap, $193.06 per share, up 0.51%Alphabet (GOOG) → $1.86T market cap, $154.38 per share, down 0.88%Borsa IstanbulAccording to the Industrial Production Index (IPI) data released for March, seasonally and calendar-adjusted industrial production increased by 3.4% compared to the previous month. However, the unadjusted raw data showed a 2.7% year-on-year decline. The main reason for this decline is that March this year had 1.5 fewer working days compared to last year. Such calendar differences can lead to distortions in annual comparisons. In the calendar-adjusted annual data, industrial production increased by 2.5%, indicating notable monthly gains in some sectors, though this increase was not widespread across all sectors.Domestically, key data such as retail sales volume, turnover indices, and construction cost index will be announced today. Additionally, tomorrow, the Treasury will hold bond auctions indexed to TLREF (Turkish Lira Overnight Reference Rate) and CPI (Consumer Price Index), both with 4-year maturities. The current account balance, budget balance, and CBRT Market Participants Survey, which will be released this week, will also be closely monitored for insights into the economic outlook.The BIST-100 index ended last week with a 2.4% gain. As the new week begins, a positive outlook is forming, supported by diplomatic developments. In particular, the announcement of a meeting to be held in Istanbul on Thursday for Russia-Ukraine peace talks could positively impact Turkey's risk premium if the process proceeds well. On the economic front, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek is expected to meet with domestic investors at an investment conference organized by Ak Yatırım following his contacts with international investors.From a technical perspective, the BIST-100 index received support at the 9232 level during Friday’s intraday pullback and closed at 9391. Technically, the 9044 level remains a strong support zone. If the recovery from this level continues, the next target could be the 9475–9580 resistance band. If this band is breached, the short-term positive outlook could strengthen further, possibly pushing the index toward the 9740–9895 range. On the downside, the 9044–8870 zone is a critical support area. A drop below this range could trigger a more pronounced decline toward 8725–8618 levels.In general, Borsa Istanbul is expected to start the week with a bullish tone in parallel with the positive global market sentiment. However, the course of economic data and diplomatic developments should be monitored closely.Most Valuable Companies on Borsa Istanbul:QNB Finansbank (QNBTR) → ₺883.56 Billion market cap, ₺269.25 per share, up 2.09%Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi (ASELS) → ₺680.35 Billion market cap, ₺141.2 per share, down 5.36%Türkiye Garanti Bankası (GARAN) → ₺425.04 Billion market cap, ₺104.4 per share, up 3.16%Turkish Airlines (THYAO) → ₺405.72 Billion market cap, ₺304.00 per share, up 3.40%ENKA İnşaat ve Sanayi (ENKAI) → ₺398.9 Billion market cap, ₺74.20 per share, up 9.04%Precious Metals and Exchange Rates:Gold: ₺4080Silver: ₺39.91Platinum: ₺1225USD: ₺38.74EUR: ₺43.55See you again tomorrow with the latest news!
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12 May 2025
A New Page in US-China Trade: Trump's "Complete Reset" Move
Donald Trump made a stunning statement after the US-China trade talks in Geneva, Switzerland: "We have launched a complete reset in US-China relations."Trump stated that the meeting with the Chinese delegation went "very well" and stressed that progress was made in many areas such as trade, technology and bilateral investments. "We have reached agreements with China on many issues," Trump said, adding that they also want China to provide greater access to the US business world.The negotiations were held in the shadow of the high tariffs imposed in recent years. It is the first time that both sides have put forward such a clear compromise to reduce trade restrictions. China's High-Level Representative He Lifeng described the talks as "a constructive dialogue taking place in the spirit of mutual respect and reconciliation."The First Concrete Steps have Been Taken in the Economic Opening Up with ChinaIn addition, the Japanese Prime Minister announced that they expect tariff reduction negotiations with the United States to be completed next July. This situation also demonstrates the Trump administration's effort to revive economic diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific region.Sunday Decrees that this development could be decisive not only for the trade balances between the two countries, but also for the cryptocurrency markets, commodity prices and global markets. The positive outcome of the negotiations can contribute to the relaxation of supply chains and the reduction of risk perception in the markets.Trump continued his optimism about economic prospects by saying that "Rate cuts would be a strong driving force for the markets."A new page is opening in the US-China talks. This step taken under Trump's leadership can also be read as an economy-centered diplomatic strategy in an election year. The new agreement expected with Japan in July and the ongoing Asian negotiations may redistribute the cards in global trade.
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11 May 2025
Daily Market Summary with JrKripto 9 May 2025
You can find today's "Daily Market with JrKripto," where we compile the most important developments in global and local markets, below. Let's analyze the general market conditions together and take a look at the latest evaluations.Bitcoin (BTC)Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $103,436. The upward trend that started from the $75,930 level gained momentum up to $104,629 by surpassing the $101,059 resistance with strong volume support. Currently, pricing is observed around the $104,000 resistance. If this level is broken upwards, the $108,000 and $109,850 regions can be followed as the next targets. However, in a possible correction, the $101,059 level stands out as the first support. If this level is breached, the $96,115 and $94,570 levels will be followed as support regions, respectively. It is critically important for BTC to maintain permanence above $101,000 to preserve the strength of the trend.Ethereum (ETH)Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading at $2,346. The strong recovery process that started from the $1,486 region carried ETH up to $2,453 by surpassing critical resistances one after another. Currently, ETH is pricing just below this resistance. If the $2,453 level is broken, the $2,595 and $2,981 levels can be followed as targets, respectively. However, in possible profit-taking after the rise, the first support is located at the $2,095 level. Below this level, the $1,790 and $1,692 support levels will gain importance. It is critical for ETH to maintain permanence above the $2,095 level to preserve the upward momentum.Crypto NewsEthereum is experiencing its most significant number of up days since 2021.The SEC announced that a settlement has been reached in the ongoing lawsuit with Ripple and its executives.Trump's China tariffs may be reduced to 50%-54% next week.Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that cryptocurrency needs U.S. leadership to develop globally.Meta is considering supporting stablecoins.Donald Trump: "The stock market is really going to rally now."Donald Trump: "Now is exactly the time to buy stocks."A Standard Chartered analyst apologized for the $120,000 Bitcoin price prediction, stating that the estimate was 'too low.'CryptocurrenciesTop Gainers:PNUT → Up 61.7% to $0.28015996PEPE → Up 42.6% to $0.00001317EIGEN → Up 34.9% to $1.21BRETT → Up 29.6% to $0.08187294ZK → Up 26.5% to $0.06958545Top Losers:LAYER → Down 6.9% to $1.20SAFE → Down 6.1% to $0.52916763KAITO → Down 1.7% to $1.40VENOM → Down 1.4% to $0.11623603BCH → Down 1.0% to $413.40Fear Index:Bitcoin: 69 (Greed)Ethereum: 49 (Neutral)Dominance:Bitcoin: 64.27% ▼ 0.29%Ethereum: 8.54% ▲ 1.95%Daily Total Net ETF InflowsBTC ETFs: $117.40 MillionETH ETFs: -$16.10 MillionGlobal MarketsPositive expectations regarding the trade agreement signed between the U.S. and the UK and the upcoming U.S.-China talks over the weekend have increased optimism in global markets. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that they are close to more trade agreements and that it is an appropriate time to buy stocks. As a result of these developments, U.S. stock indices closed the day with gains. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.58%, the Dow Jones by 0.62%, and the Nasdaq by 1.07%. While most sectors in the S&P 500 index performed positively, discretionary consumer and industrial sectors rose by 1.35%, energy by 1.26%, and the raw materials sector by 1.20%. On the other hand, limited losses were observed in the health, infrastructure, real estate, and consumer staples sectors.According to the trade agreement between the U.S. and the UK, tariffs on UK-origin steel and aluminum products will be reduced to zero. In the automotive sector, the first 100,000 vehicles imported from the UK will be subject to a 10% customs duty. However, some previously announced tariffs, including the 10% tariffs that came into effect on April 2, will continue to be applied. Following this agreement, purchases in U.S. stock markets accelerated, and a slightly positive trend is observed in the futures markets this morning. The VIX volatility index has declined over the past two days, reaching 22.5.In Europe, following the approval of the agreement between the UK and the U.S. and the Bank of England's interest rate cut, the UK's FTSE 100 index closed the day down by 0.3%, while the EuroStoxx 600 index rose by 0.4%. European technology stocks gained 1.9%. In Asian markets, a mixed outlook is observed this morning, with generally flat to positive pricing prevailing.In the U.S. bond market, yields rose following the agreement news. The 10-year bond yield increased by 11 basis points to 4.38%, while the 2-year bond yield rose by 10 basis points to 3.87%. Thus, the difference between the 10-year and 2-year bond yields reached 50 basis points. The dollar index (DXY) rose by 1.0% daily to 100.6, while the Euro/Dollar pair fell by 0.6% to 1.123. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin reached its highest level since the end of January, surpassing $100,000. In commodities, Brent crude oil rose by 2.8% to $62.8 per barrel due to optimistic expectations regarding U.S.-China trade talks. Gold prices, on the other hand, fell by 1.7% following the agreement news, ending the day at $3,306 per ounce.Most Valuable Companies and Stock PricesMicrosoft (MSFT) → $3.26T market cap, $438.17 per share, up 1.11%Apple (AAPL) → $2.95T market cap, $197.49 per share, up 0.63%NVIDIA (NVDA) → $2.86T market cap, $117.37 per share, up 0.26%Amazon (AMZN) → $2.04T market cap, $192.08 per share, up 1.79%Alphabet (GOOG) → $1.88T market cap, $155.75 per share, up 1.93%Borsa IstanbulDomestically, in April, the Treasury's cash balance posted a deficit of 183.5 billion TL, while the primary balance showed a surplus of 73.6 billion TL. In the same period last year, there was a deficit of 237.1 billion TL and a primary deficit of 132.1 billion TL. In April, budget revenues increased by 64.0% annually, while expenditures rose by 40.2%. Thus, the total cash deficit in the first four months of the year reached 1 trillion 85 billion TL.The Istanbul Chamber of Industry's Turkey Export Climate Index decreased by 0.7 points in April, reaching 50.8. The index has remained above the threshold level of 50 for 16 months. However, uncertainties in global trade and economic slowdowns in some export markets appear to have pressured the index. Today, domestic industrial production data for March will be announced. Preliminary indicators suggest that the weak trend in production continues.The BIST 100 index has been finding support above the 9,000 level for the past week and closed yesterday at 9,279 points, up over 2%. Notably, there was intense buying in the defense industry, petrochemical/refinery, aviation, and telecommunications sectors. The positive atmosphere in global stock markets also supported BIST. Today, it is expected that the buying trend in BIST will continue, but the pace of the increase may slow down. Next week, messages from Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek during investor meetings will be closely monitored.From a technical perspective, the BIST100 index rose strongly from the 9,033 level. The 9,044-8,870 range maintains its importance as a support zone. As long as it stays above this area, the upward reaction is expected to continue. However, if it falls below this zone, a pullback to the 8,618-8,500 levels may occur. On the upside, the 9,490-9,594 band is the first resistance area, and if these levels are surpassed, there is potential for a rise towards the 9,740-9,895 band.Most Valuable Companies in Borsa IstanbulQNB Finansbank (QNBTR) → 875.19 billion TL market cap, 263.75 TL per share, up 0.96%Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi (ASELS) → 702.7 billion TL market cap, 150.9 TL per share, down 2.08%Türkiye Garanti Bankası (GARAN) → 422.94 billion TL market cap, 99.7 TL per share, down 1.04%Türk Hava Yolları (THYAO) → 392.61 billion TL market cap, 288.50 TL per share, up 1.41%ENKA İnşaat ve Sanayi (ENKAI) → 381.32 billion TL market cap, 66.85 TL per share, up 2.77%Precious Metals and Exchange RatesGold: 4,126 TLSilver: 40.59 TLPlatinum: 1,235 TLDollar: 38.73 TLEuro: 43.50 TLLooking forward to meeting again tomorrow with the latest news!
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9 May 2025
Critical Statements from Trump on Global Economy and Trade
U.S. President Donald Trump set the agenda today with his statements on both foreign trade policies and his evaluations of the markets. Beginning his speech with the words "Today is a very special day," Trump announced agreements signed with Ukraine and the United Kingdom.Agreements with Ukraine and the United KingdomTrump stated that a significant agreement was signed between the U.S. and Ukraine in the field of rare earth elements. It was emphasized that this agreement holds great importance in terms of reducing the U.S.'s dependence on foreign sources for critical minerals and strengthening access to strategic resources.In addition, he announced that a "groundbreaking" trade agreement had been reached with the United Kingdom. Under the new agreement, U.S.-origin products will pass through British customs more quickly and easily. Trump said this arrangement would create significant advantages for U.S. exporters.Global Trade Talks Gain MomentumTrump noted that many countries around the world currently want to make trade deals with the U.S. Emphasizing America's central role on the trade stage, he said, “There are many scheduled meetings. Every country wants to make a deal with us.”Drawing particular attention to negotiations with China, Trump said, “China is eager to make a deal.” He gave the message that if the talks progress positively, tariffs on China could be reduced. This statement sent positive signals to the markets that trade tensions between the two countries could ease.Clear Message to the Markets: Now Is the Time to BuyIn his assessments of the economy, Trump stated that the U.S. continues strongly even without interest rate cuts. However, he also added that possible rate cuts would be a significant driving force for the markets.Saying, “Now is exactly the time to buy stocks,” Trump claimed that the stock markets would experience a significant rise in the near future. With the expression, “The stock market is really going to rally now,” he gave a direct message to investors.Today’s statements carry important clues regarding the U.S.'s global trade moves and economic policies. Both in terms of international agreements and market guidance, Trump’s speech is being closely followed by investors and global actors. With progress in trade negotiations and potential interest rate cuts, we may be on the brink of a new era in global markets.
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8 May 2025
Balanced Message from Powell: Is the Fed Preparing the Ground for June?
On the evening of May 7, 2025, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its policy rate steady at the 4.25–4.50% range. However, what markets were really curious about were the statements made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell following the meeting. Powell, in a cautious yet optimistic tone, signaled the beginning of a new era in monetary policy.Emphasis on "Data-Driven Flexibility" Instead of "Wait and See"Powell stated that the U.S. economy remains strong but noted that upward risks persist on both the inflation and unemployment fronts. He emphasized that despite the slowdown in inflation, concerns about its persistence continue. Nevertheless, he delivered a message of flexibility in monetary policy: he said the Fed will continue to evaluate its decisions in light of current data. This statement keeps the possibility of a rate cut at the June meeting alive.Laying the Groundwork for JuneA recent statement by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, saying "May is too early, but June is seriously on the table," aligns with Powell's message. Market pricing has also taken shape in this direction. Interest rate futures indicate that a 25 basis point cut in June has gained significant probability.Dynamics Between the Trump Administration and the FedPowell, in response to President Trump's explicit calls for a rate cut, emphasized the Fed’s independence. By saying “We base our decisions on data and analysis,” he maintained a balanced stance against political pressure. Still, it appears that the Trump administration expects a rate cut to support growth as inflation declines. This political pressure is one of the factors increasing market expectations for June.Markets and Risk Assets Gain StrengthThere was no sharp correction in markets following the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady. On the contrary, with uncertainty diminishing and expectations of easing in the summer, risk appetite has increased. Gold tested the $3,300 level. A recovery trend was observed in Bitcoin and tech stocks. Especially the retreat in bond yields shows that investors are repositioning.Powell Cautious, Market HopefulPowell’s remarks suggest that the Fed may be creating room to maneuver for a rate cut in the summer. Even if May was a pause, a clear “preparation period” atmosphere has formed for the June meeting. If the downward trend in inflation continues and more signs of slowing growth emerge, summer 2025 could begin with a rate cut.Balances in the economy remain delicate, but the Fed’s clear messaging is being seen as a positive step for markets.
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8 May 2025
Daily Market Summary with JrKripto 8 May 2025
Daily Market Insights with JrKripto: Global & Local Financial HighlightsWelcome to today’s edition of “Daily Market Insights with JrKripto,” where we break down the most important developments across global and local financial markets. Let’s dive into the broader market landscape and take a closer look at the latest evaluations.Bitcoin (BTC) Price UpdateBitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $99,700, following a strong upward trend that began at the $75,930 support level. This rally has pushed BTC above the critical $95,000–$96,000 resistance zone, bringing it within striking distance of the psychological $100,000 mark.Should BTC decisively break above $100,000 with strong volume, the next potential targets lie at $101,000 and higher. However, any profit-taking in this region could lead to a pullback, with the $95,000–$96,000 range now acting as the first support. Below that, $94,000, $90,500, and $86,500 will serve as key levels to watch.Ethereum (ETH) Price MovementEthereum (ETH) has climbed to $1,940, extending its rally from the $1,486 level. The coin has successfully tested above both $1,888 and $1,900, displaying strong technical momentum. If the upward trend continues, the immediate target is the psychological $2,000 resistance.A breakout above $2,000 could pave the way to the next resistance levels at $2,277 and $2,428. On the downside, $1,888remains the first major support. A drop below that level would shift attention to $1,790 and $1,700. Holding above $1,888 is crucial for ETH to maintain its bullish structure.Top Crypto HeadlinesFederal Reserve Holds Rates Steady – Investors are pricing in three rate cuts this year.Tether Mints $1 Billion in USDTBessent Announces China Negotiations to Start SaturdayEthereum’s Pectra Upgrade Complete – Featuring 11 Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs), this is the most significant update since the 2022 Merge.Crypto Market MoversTop Gainers:MOG → +43.8% to $0.3662PENGU → +27.9% to $0.0143SAFE → +22.5% to $0.5617IBERA → +20.1% to $3.32EOS → +18.4% to $0.8471Top Losers:LAYER → -28.0% to $1.28VENOM → -7.8% to $0.1177OM → -6.5% to $0.3637SYRUP → -6.1% to $0.2226MX → -1.9% to $2.74Fear Index:Bitcoin: 65Ethereum: 54Dominance:BTC: 65.14% ▼ 0.33%ETH: 7.64% ▲ 3.04%Daily Net ETF Flows:BTC ETFs: +$142.3METH ETFs: -$21.8MKey Economic Data to Watch Today15:30 – U.S. Initial Jobless ClaimsForecast: 231K | Previous: 241KGlobal Markets OverviewDespite post-Fed meeting volatility, U.S. equities closed higher thanks to reports suggesting Donald Trump may ease export restrictions on the chip sector.The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, in a unanimous decision. While recent economic data points to robust growth, inflation remains elevated. The Fed highlighted ongoing uncertainties in the economic outlook and reiterated a data-dependent stance for future rate decisions.Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank is well-positioned to “wait and see,” and is in no rush to change rates. Following his remarks, markets initially wavered but rebounded on Trump’s export news. Trump also hinted at a major trade announcement, likely involving the UK.Market Performance:S&P 500: +0.43%Dow Jones: +0.70%Nasdaq: +0.27%Best-performing sectors included consumer discretionary (+1.02%), tech (+0.91%), healthcare (+0.81%), and finance (+0.62%), while telecom (-1.84%), materials (-0.50%), and real estate (-0.02%) lagged.Asian markets are opening strong today, and European indexes are expected to follow with positive momentum.U.S. Tech Giants: Market Cap & Stock PriceMicrosoft (MSFT): $3.22T | $433.35 ▲ 0.01%Apple (AAPL): $2.93T | $196.25 ▼ 1.14%NVIDIA (NVDA): $2.85T | $117.06 ▲ 3.10%Amazon (AMZN): $2.00T | $188.71 ▲ 2.00%Alphabet (GOOG): $1.84T | $152.80 ▼ 7.51%Borsa Istanbul (BIST) UpdateThe BIST100 index closed around 1% lower yesterday, impacted by geopolitical tensions and growth concerns. Aviation, steel, and petrochemical stocks faced heavy selling, while defense and retail sectors outperformed.Fitch Ratings commented in a recent webinar that it does not expect further rate hikes from Turkey’s central bank. However, it warned of a reassessment of Turkish banks if domestic price volatility continues.As Q1 2025 earnings season winds down, weak corporate results may continue to weigh on BIST. All eyes are now on Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek’s upcoming meetings with international investors.Technical Outlook:Support: 9044 – 8870 – 8725 – 8618Resistance: 9266 – 9475/9490 – 9594 – 9740 – 9895 – 9953Consolidation around current levels could lead to a rebound, but a drop below key support might accelerate downside risk toward the 8500 region.Top Companies on BIST by Market CapQNB Finansbank (QNBTR): ₺890.26B | ₺268.75 ▲ 1.13%Aselsan (ASELS): ₺657.55B | ₺158.00 ▲ 9.57%Garanti Bank (GARAN): ₺419.58B | ₺99.95 ▲ 0.05%Turkish Airlines (THYAO): ₺384.68B | ₺284.50 ▲ 2.06%ENKA (ENKAI): ₺363.14B | ₺62.40 ▲ 0.73%Precious Metals & Exchange RatesGold: ₺4,229Silver: ₺40.73Platinum: ₺1,228USD/TRY: ₺38.65EUR/TRY: ₺43.84See you again tomorrow with more updates and market insights!
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8 May 2025
May Interest Rate Decision Is Being Announced: Eyes Are on Powell's Statement
U.S. Federal Reserve Expected to Hold Rates Steady on May 7, 2025, as Attention Turns to JuneThe U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at its May 7 meeting. However, all eyes are now on June. Recent economic data, market pricing, and political pressures are increasing the likelihood of a rate cut as summer approaches.Hammack Sends a Clear SignalThe Fed has held interest rates steady in the 4.25%–4.50% range for the past two meetings. While inflation data suggests a mild cooling, signs of weakening economic growth are also emerging. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said May is too early for a rate cut, but referred to June as a potential turning point.Powell to Speak: His Messages Will Be CrucialFed Chair Jerome Powell’s statements today will play a key role in shaping market sentiment. With his usual “data-dependent” language, Powell is expected to signal that a rate cut window could open in June. However, he may also adopt a selective tone without fully committing.Trump Sends a Clear Message to the Fed: “Cut Rates”U.S. President Donald Trump has made interest rate cuts a central focus of his economic policy. A statement from the White House emphasized, “Prices are falling, energy is getting cheaper, the Fed should cut rates now.” Having won the 2024 election, Trump aims to establish a growth model driven by employment and investment.What Are Markets Expecting?Markets had already priced in a pause at the May meeting. However, interest rate futures for June now reflect a strong probability of a 25 basis point cut. Assets like gold, Bitcoin, and the Nasdaq have already responded positively to this expectation.June Could Be a Turning PointThe June 17–18 meeting is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for 2025. With inflation momentum slowing and the labor market softening, the first signals of a rate cut could be delivered.If the Fed announces today that it is holding rates steady, it will come as no surprise. The real focus will be on Powell’s nuanced remarks. Any potential rate cut in June will be a key indicator of the direction of the U.S. economy and global market risk sentiment.
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7 May 2025
The US and China, Ending Trade Tensions China Is Sitting at the Table in Geneva
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Begin Major Trade Talks with China on Saturday, May 9U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that they will begin a highly significant round of trade negotiations with China on Saturday, May 9. The meetings, set to take place in Geneva, aim to ease the harsh tariffs and years-long trade war between the two countries.During these first official talks, the U.S. will be represented by Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, while China will be represented by Vice Premier He Lifeng. The two sides are expected to discuss the gradual reduction of trade barriers, including U.S. tariffs that have reached up to 145% and China's retaliatory tariffs of up to 125%.Bessent: “Tariffs Are Unsustainable”Bessent emphasized that these talks should be considered preliminary negotiations for now. “The current tariffs are unsustainable for both sides. Prolonging them only increases economic uncertainty,” he stated.Since the beginning of 2025, under President Trump’s direction, the U.S. intensified its trade pressure with tariffs as high as 145% across various sectors, from steel to electronics. China responded with equivalent retaliatory measures, making it more difficult to import U.S. agricultural products, energy, and manufactured goods.Geneva Talks: Just the BeginningThe Chinese Ministry of Commerce said they responded positively to the U.S. invitation for talks, but emphasized that progress would depend on mutual respect. China sees these discussions as a stabilizing step in the face of internal economic pressures and high inflation.These negotiations are considered the first concrete step toward easing the intensifying trade war between the U.S. and China. However, experts believe that while the talks may produce a roadmap, a comprehensive agreement will require much more diplomatic effort over time.Global Impact: Can Markets Breathe Easier?Easing trade tensions is critical not just for the two nations involved, but for the global economy as a whole. Disruptions in supply chains and volatility in energy and steel prices have created uncertainty in markets. That’s why the Geneva talks are being closely watched by global stock and commodity markets alike.In conclusion, this diplomatic step led by Bessent offers hope that diplomacy and compromise may once again take precedence in a world where economic conflicts have replaced hot wars.
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7 May 2025
Daily Market Summary with JrKripto 7 May 2025
You can find today’s edition of “Daily Market with JrKripto,” where we compile the most important developments in global and local markets, below. Let’s analyze the general market conditions together and take a look at the latest assessments.Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $97,000. With a strong upward trend that started from the $75,930 support, BTC has surpassed the $95,000–$96,000 resistance zone and continues to gain upward momentum. If this movement continues, the next target could be the $101,000 level. However, in case of profit-taking, the $94,000–$95,000 range can be monitored as the first support zone. If this level is breached, $90,500 and then $86,500 will be the next key support levels to watch.Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $1,830. The recovery process that began from the $1,486 support has lifted ETH back above the $1,800 level. If the upward move continues, the $1,888 and $1,950 levels could act as resistance. However, if the price pulls back from $1,830, the first support is at $1,790. If it remains below this level, $1,700 could come into play as strong support. For ETH to maintain its upward trend, holding above the $1,790 level is critically important.Crypto NewsTrump: "I will make an announcement that will shake the world."Trump on China: "They want to negotiate."Bitwise filed a spot ETF application for NEAR.The U.S. and U.K. are expected to sign a new trade deal this week.The Governor of New Hampshire signed a bill allowing the state to invest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.Standard Chartered Bank forecasts $BNB will reach $2,775 by 2028.Chinese President Xi: "We are ready to work with EU leaders to broaden mutual openness and handle frictions and disputes appropriately."Top Gainers in CryptoKAITO → up 49.9% to $1.25SYRUP → up 26.9% to $0.2388CVX → up 14.4% to $3.14STX → up 12.7% to $0.8553LTC → up 12.0% to $91.79Top Losers in CryptoMOVE → down 17.9% to $0.1573VIRTUAL → down 17.4% to $1.36LAYER → down 8.7% to $1.78FARTCOIN → down 7.8% to $1.02FRAX → down 6.0% to $2.00Fear IndexBitcoin: 62Ethereum: 43DominanceBitcoin: 65.25% ▼ 0.03%Ethereum: 7.50% ▲ 0.68%Daily Net ETF FlowsBTC ETFs: -$85.70 MillionETH ETFs: -$17.90 MillionData to Watch Today17:30 – U.S. EIA Crude Oil InventoriesForecast: -1.700M | Previous: -2.696M21:00 – FOMC Statement21:00 – Interest Rate DecisionForecast: 4.50% | Previous: 4.50%21:30 – FOMC Press ConferenceGlobal MarketsThe day began with escalating tensions between Pakistan and India turning into active conflict. Reports indicate missile strikes, downed aircraft, and casualties. As both countries are nuclear powers, this conflict raises serious global concerns. Although markets are currently unresponsive, further escalation could negatively impact global markets.This morning, the focus in global markets is on the U.S.–China tariff talks planned in Switzerland. Optimism prevails with hopes that these negotiations might ease trade wars. U.S. and European futures, along with most Asian markets (excluding India), are trading positively. While Asian indices are seeing strong buying, European markets are expected to open flat but positive.In the U.S., the 9-day rally driven by optimism over tariffs has ended. Trump's newly announced tax policies targeting the film and pharmaceutical industries have dampened investor appetite. Furthermore, the announcement that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet China’s Deputy Prime Minister in Switzerland between May 9–12 will be closely watched.U.S. indices dropped yesterday:S&P 500: -0.77%Dow Jones: -0.95%Nasdaq: -0.87%Only infrastructure (+1.23%) and energy (+0.10%) sectors posted gains among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500. Healthcare suffered the biggest loss, falling by 2.76%. The industrials and consumer discretionary sectors both declined by 0.85%.The U.S. also released trade data for March. The trade deficit widened by $17.3 billion to $140.5 billion. Most of this increase came from a $16.5 billion rise in the goods deficit. The services surplus decreased by $800 million. While exports remained unchanged, imports rose by 4.4% in anticipation of expected tariff hikes in April.Today, all eyes are on the Fed's interest rate decision. No change is expected in the rate. However, investors will closely monitor the pace of balance sheet reduction, long-term rate projections, and the Fed’s forward guidance signaled during the March meeting.Meanwhile, oil prices have begun to recover, driven by lower-than-expected crude inventory data and a downward revision of production forecasts by the International Energy Agency due to lower prices. This has supported energy sector performance.In general, markets today are navigating between optimism over U.S.–China talks, cautious pricing ahead of the Fed meeting, and the influence of geopolitical developments.Most Valuable Companies and Stock PricesMicrosoft (MSFT): $3.22T market cap, $433.31/share, ▼ 0.66%Apple (AAPL): $2.96T market cap, $198.51/share, ▼ 0.19%NVIDIA (NVDA): $2.77T market cap, $113.54/share, ▼ 0.25%Alphabet (GOOG): $1.99T market cap, $165.20/share, ▼ 0.51%Amazon (AMZN): $1.96T market cap, $185.01/share, ▼ 0.72%Borsa IstanbulDespite some mild buying yesterday, momentum in Borsa Istanbul remains weak. High interest rates, poor corporate earnings, and ongoing political risks continue to pressure the market. Retail and aviation stocks underperformed on concerns about weakening domestic demand. On the other hand, buying in banking, real estate investment trusts (REITs), mining, and defense stocks provided limited support to the index. Nevertheless, the BIST 100 index closed the day flat at 9,135 points. The intraday high was 9,228 points.Movements in both directions remain limited. Technically, the 9,044–8,870 range is still a strong support zone, consistent with previous lows. If the index holds in or just above this range, a continued rebound is possible. But a break below it could increase selling pressure and push the index down to 8,618–8,500. On the upside, initial resistance lies at 9,266. If this is breached, the 9,490–9,594 range is a key resistance zone. If this range is surpassed, the index may target 9,740–9,895–9,953 in the short term.On the macroeconomic side, TÜİK’s seasonally adjusted data shows monthly inflation rose slightly from 2.61% in March to 2.65% in April. Core inflation indicators (B and C indexes) accelerated to 2.84% and 3.02%, respectively, from 1.94% and 2.25% in March. Monthly increases in services hit 3.15%, while goods prices slightly declined (2.41%). Non-energy, non-food goods prices rose from 2.30% to 2.61%, largely due to currency effects.The CPI-based Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) dropped 2.1% in April, reaching its lowest point since October 2021. This decline was driven by the Turkish lira’s depreciation—2.8% against the dollar and 7% against the euro. However, on an annual basis, REER remains at 11.6%, still indicating a zone of real appreciation.The Treasury borrowed a total of 35.3 billion TL yesterday through auctions, including non-competitive bids. In the 2-year fixed coupon bond auction, the average compound interest rate came in at 47.19%.Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan stated in his presentation to the Turkish Parliament’s Planning and Budget Committee that current reserves are insufficient compared to short-term external debt and emphasized ongoing efforts to boost reserves.Also today, international credit rating agency Fitch will hold a webinar titled “Turkey’s Credit Outlook and Banking Sector.”Most Valuable Companies on Borsa IstanbulQNB Finansbank (QNBTR): 891.1B TL market cap, 267.75 TL/share, ▲ 0.66%Aselsan (ASELS): 626.54B TL market cap, 145.30 TL/share, ▲ 5.75%Garanti Bank (GARAN): 426.72B TL market cap, 101.50 TL/share, ▼ 0.10%Turkish Airlines (THYAO): 402.62B TL market cap, 289.50 TL/share, ▼ 0.77%ENKA Construction (ENKAI): 375.16B TL market cap, 63.10 TL/share, ▼ 1.41%Precious Metals and Exchange RatesGold: 4,199 TLSilver: 40.73 TLPlatinum: 1,228 TLDollar: 38.64 TLEuro: 43.90 TLWe’ll see you again tomorrow with the latest updates!
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7 May 2025
A New Trade Agreement Between the US and the UK is on the Way
The United Kingdom, United with the United States, is preparing to sign a new trade agreement this week. This step shows that despite the Trump administration's publicly perceived attitude as far from compromise, his team is conducting negotiations with 17 of the 18 major trading partners behind the scenes. According to the Financial Times, the new agreement between the US and the UK will be signed this week. Dec.What Does the Agreement Bring?The new trade package is aimed at reducing the effects of steel and automobile tariffs, especially those introduced during the Trump era. The UK had suffered losses in car and steel exports due to US tariffs of up to 25%. London hopes to reach a compromise by the end of this week to eliminate these harmful effects.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had previously stated in a statement that a tariff agreement for a major economy could be signed "as early as this week." The FT confirms that this country is the UK.Strategic Effects: Change of Direction in Trade?Sunday Sunday statements from the U.S. side,"we do not need our market, they want access to our market" draws attention to the emphasis. Trump has said in various press conferences that "we don't lose anything by not doing trade," arguing that the United States has the upper hand at the bargaining table.The UK's attitude towards the upcoming agreement with the United States is associated with the country's flexibility in the digital services tax and tariffs on US agricultural products. However, this situation may also set the stage for conflicts that may arise, especially in veterinary agreements with the European Union.Impact on the Cryptocurrency MarketThe signing of this trade agreement will show that the United States is not isolated and is open to compromise. This may trigger the perception that "uncertainty has been lifted" in the market. It is observed that such positive foreign trade news pushes up the price. For the cryptocurrency market, this agreement may be critical both for the recovery of the general market mood and for the legitimization of digital assets.
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6 May 2025
Trump on China: They want to meet.
Trump: “We’re Not Losing Anything by Not Trading with China”U.S. President Donald Trump made statements regarding trade negotiations with China, saying, “China wants to negotiate with us, but we are waiting for the right time.” Speaking during a meeting at the White House with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump noted that while China wants to engage in talks, such a meeting has not yet taken place.“We’re not losing anything by not trading with China,” said Trump, emphasizing that China has significantly benefited from the U.S. and that the suspension of trade is currently hurting the Chinese economy.“We’re Not Interested in Their Market”Trump stressed that the U.S. does not need to sign trade deals with other countries, stating, “They are the ones who need to make deals with us. They want access to our market. We don’t want access to theirs; we don’t care about their market.” With these remarks, Trump highlighted the advantage the U.S. holds due to its strong consumer market.Recalling that the U.S. was running multibillion-dollar trade deficits daily when he took office, Trump claimed they had reversed this situation. He mentioned that following the imposition of tariffs on the automotive, aluminum, and steel sectors, many companies had returned to the U.S. with trillions of dollars in investment.“We Could Sign 25 Trade Deals Right Now, But We Don’t Have To”When asked, “When will you sign a trade deal?” Trump replied, “If we wanted to, we could sign 25 trade deals right now. But we’re not obligated to sign anything. Even under current conditions, everyone wants to make a deal with us because our market is attractive.”Trump added that, together with Vice President JD Vance, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, they would be evaluating trade deal matters over the next two weeks. He stated that they would proceed with fair, low, and enforceable figures.“We Want to Be Friends with Countries, Not Cause Harm”Trump emphasized that their trade strategy is not harsh but flexible: “We’re not chaotic, but we’re adaptable. The numbers we set will be fair. We don’t want to harm countries; we want to help. We want to build friendly relations,” he said.Trump’s remarks underscore the U.S.’s strong bargaining position in trade, signaling that while negotiations with China will continue, they will not be made under pressure. The global trade order continues to evolve under the firm direction of Trump’s trade policies.
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6 May 2025
Daily Market Summary with JrKripto 6 May 2025
You can find today’s “Daily Market with JrKripto,” where we compile the most important developments in global and local markets, below. Let’s analyze the general market conditions together and take a look at the latest updates.Here’s the updated version, aligned with current prices and presented as a single, cohesive text:Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $94,300. Following an upward trend that began at the $75,930 support level, the price has managed to hold above the $94,000 mark. BTC continues to test the resistance zone between $95,000 and $96,000. If this level is broken to the upside, $101,000 could emerge as the next target. However, if profit-taking occurs around current levels, the first support lies at $90,500. Below that, $86,500 is considered a stronger support level.Ethereum (ETH) is trading at around $1,800. The recovery that started from the $1,486 support has pushed ETH back above the $1,800 level. Should the upward momentum continue, the resistance levels to watch are $1,888 and $1,950. On the downside, $1,790 will be the first support point in case of a pullback. If ETH drops below this level, $1,700 could act as the next support. Staying above $1,790 is key for ETH to maintain its current upward trend.Crypto NewsChinese President Xi stated: “We are ready to work with EU leaders to expand mutual openness and properly manage frictions and disagreements.”Tether minted $1 billion worth of USDT.Strategy announced the purchase of 1,985 BTC.Binance founder CZ stated that he proposed BNB and BTC as the initial reserve currencies for Kyrgyzstan’s national crypto fund. Previously, CZ had joined Kyrgyzstan’s National Crypto Committee upon the invitation of President Sadyr Japarov.VanEck submitted an S-1 filing for a BNB ETF.President Trump said, “I want crypto. Crypto is important because if we don’t do it, China will.”Top Gainers:DAKU → Up 28.6% to $0.1833SAROS → Up 14.8% to $0.1510TURBO → Up 14.1% to $0.0060MOVE → Up 11.4% to $0.1870SAFE → Up 10.7% to $0.4922Top Losers:LAYER → Down 37.6% to $1.96RAY → Down 13.4% to $2.31DEEP → Down 9.0% to $0.1734BRETT → Down 8.4% to $0.0505FLR → Down 8.4% to $0.0180Other Metrics:24-Hour Volume: $64.06BMarket Cap: $2.92TFear & Greed Index:Bitcoin: 57 (Greed)Ethereum: 51 (Neutral)Dominance:Bitcoin: 64.87% ▲ 0.05%Ethereum: 7.54% ▼ 0.45%Daily Net ETF Flows:BTC ETFs: $425.50 MillionETH ETFs: $0.0 MillionGlobal MarketsU.S. stock indices ended the first trading day of the week with minor losses after nine consecutive days of gains. The S&P 500 fell by 0.64%, the Dow Jones by 0.24%, and the Nasdaq by 0.74%. The consumer staples sector stood out with a slight increase, while energy (-2.02%), consumer discretionary (-1.32%), and tech (-0.85%) were the weakest.The drop in energy stocks was triggered by OPEC+ announcing an additional daily output of 411,000 barrels. Following the announcement, oil prices dropped by 1.85%. Furthermore, former President Donald Trump’s proposal to impose a 100% import tariff on foreign films led to selling pressure in media and entertainment stocks.Looking at economic data, the U.S. ISM services PMI rose to 51.6 in April, beating expectations of 50.2 and March’s 50.8, indicating accelerated activity in the service sector. The new orders index rose to 52.3, suggesting increased demand. However, the employment index remained in contraction territory at 49. The prices index surged to 65.1, the highest since January 2023, reflecting mounting cost pressures. The delivery times index rose to 51.3, suggesting slower deliveries.On the other hand, the S&P Global Services PMI for April was revised down from 51.4 to 50.8, indicating slight weakness. Today, the U.S. will release its March trade balance data; in February, the trade deficit was $122.7 billion.In global markets, China’s Caixin services PMI came in at 50.7, below the expected 51.7, creating a mixed outlook across Asian markets, while European markets are expected to open flat.Markets are now focused on the Fed’s interest rate decision and Chair Powell’s remarks. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady. U.S. weekly crude oil inventory data is also on today’s economic agenda.Most Valuable Companies and Stock PricesMicrosoft (MSFT) → $3.24T market cap, $436.17 per share, up 0.20%Apple (AAPL) → $2.99T market cap, $198.89 per share, down 3.15%NVIDIA (NVDA) → $2.78T market cap, $113.82 per share, down 0.59%Alphabet (GOOG) → $2T market cap, $166.05 per share, up 0.14%Amazon (AMZN) → $1.98T market cap, $186.35 per share, down 1.91%Borsa IstanbulIn Borsa Istanbul, weak momentum and capital outflows persist. Due to high interest rates, poor earnings reports, and ongoing political risks, the pressure on BIST is expected to continue. Technically, the 9000–9100 range serves as support, while the 9250–9280 zone is resistance. About 35% of companies have reported Q1 2025 results, and only 15% showed positive outcomes across six key metrics: revenue, gross profit, EBITDA, EBITDA margin, net profit, and return on equity. This is likely to lead to downward revisions in 12-month average targets and keep the index in a narrow range.Today, PMI and PPI data from Europe will be monitored. Turkey’s 5-year CDS started the day at 349 basis points.In April, Turkey’s CPI rose by 3.0% monthly, slightly below the 3.2% forecast. Annual inflation dropped to 37.86%, down 0.2 points. Core inflation indicators — the B index at 36.8% and the C index at 37.1% — showed minor declines. Due to currency movements, PPI increased by 2.76% month-on-month and fell to 22.5% year-on-year. This trend suggests an upward pressure on inflation, driven by TL depreciation and regulated price adjustments.Today, Turkey’s real effective exchange rate for April will be released. The Treasury will also conduct auctions for 2-year fixed coupon and 7-year floating rate bonds.Following the inflation report, Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek stated that the year-end inflation is still expected to remain within the Central Bank’s forecast range. He also mentioned that due to new U.S. trade policies, some American companies are in talks to manufacture in Turkey, and efforts to combat the informal economy will be intensified. He will meet with investors in London and Doha next week.Data shows that demand for automobiles, especially imported ones, hit record highs in April. Externally, risk-off sentiment prevails ahead of the Fed meeting. Domestically, Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan will present to the Parliament’s Planning and Budget Committee today.The BIST 100 index climbed to 9241 yesterday but closed at 9112 after selling pressure. The rebound from 9058 confirms that the 9044–8870 band is a strong support zone. As long as the index stays above this range, recovery may continue. However, sustained trading below this level could lead to a sharper decline toward the 8618–8500 zone. On the upside, 9490–9594 is the next resistance zone, and if breached, the 9740–9895 band may come into play. The index is expected to remain flat in the short term.Most Valuable Companies on Borsa IstanbulQNB Finansbank (QNBTR) → 900.31B TL market cap, 270.00 TL per share, up 0.47%Aselsan (ASELS) → 591.89B TL market cap, 136.90 TL per share, up 5.47%Garanti Bank (GARAN) → 425.88B TL market cap, 102.80 TL per share, up 1.38%Turkish Airlines (THYAO) → 405.72B TL market cap, 293.75 TL per share, down 0.09%ENKA Construction (ENKAI) → 373.70B TL market cap, 64.35 TL per share, up 0.94%Precious Metals and Currency RatesGold: 4,165 TLSilver: 41.06 TLPlatinum: 1,216 TLUSD: 38.60 TLEUR: 43.73 TLLooking forward to seeing you again tomorrow with the latest updates!
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6 May 2025
Countdown To Fed Rate Cut Begins
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy has once again become the focal point of global markets.After keeping rates steady at the last two meetings, the Fed has now begun signaling potential cuts.A slowdown in inflation, a drop in the pace of economic growth, and public calls from President Trump have strengthened expectations of a rate cut.Markets broadly expect no change at the May meeting, but anticipate that cuts could begin as early as June.Signals Point to JuneCleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said that the May meeting would be too early for a rate cut, while highlighting June as a key threshold.If the relative decline in inflation continues and the slowdown in economic activity deepens, rate cuts are expected to be on the agenda at the June 17–18 meeting.This expectation has already been reflected in the markets.Interest rate futures are now pricing in a 25 basis point cut in June.The Fed’s continued emphasis on “economic activity remaining strong” signals that they will time the move with caution.Trump Increases PressureU.S. President Donald Trump has intensified his calls for rate cuts.In a White House statement, he said,“Overall prices are falling, energy prices are declining. I hope the Fed lowers rates,” delivering a direct message.Trump’s bid for re-election increases the risk of the Fed’s rate policy becoming more politicized.Especially a White House looking to boost economic activity may see inflation nearing the 2% target as sufficient justification for a rate cut.Gold, Bonds, and Market ReactionsMarkets have already started pricing in expectations.Gold has reached its highest levels in recent times.Rate cut expectations are pulling down bond yields, while interest in risk assets is once again rising.Recovery signals are also visible in Bitcoin and the Nasdaq.Investors Watching June CloselyNo changes are expected in May, but June represents a critical turning point for the Fed.The direction of inflation and other economic data suggest that rate cuts may not be far off.The Fed is likely to enter the summer of 2025 with a rate cut.As the economy starts signaling a rebound, this move could define the new trajectory for financial markets.
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5 May 2025
Trump: "I Want Crypto, Because If We Don't, China Will"
US President Donald Trump has caused repercussions in the cryptocurrency market with his recent statements. Speaking to NBC News, Trump said that digital assets are no longer just an investment vehicle, but have become a national priority. “I want crypto, crypto is important because China will do it if we don't,” he said, adding that the United States cannot remain passive in the digital finance race.Digital Finance Is Now a Strategic Issue For the United StatesTrump's exit is not only at the level of rhetoric. The USD1 stablecoin, which was launched through his family-owned World Liberty Financial, will be used by Abu Dhabi-based MGX for a $2 billion investment. This step reveals that the Trump family intends to shape the digital dollar on its own initiative.Given the aggressive steps China has taken on the digital yuan, Trump's words take on even more meaning. The president draws attention to the risk that the United States will lose leadership in this area and argues that competition in the digital economy no longer has a technological, but a geopolitical dimension.The Markets Got The MessageAnalysts say that this clear stance of Trump may create an atmosphere of confidence for institutional investors in the long run.Although it seems to have had a limited impact on prices in the short term, Trump's cryptocurrency-friendly messages are the kind that could determine the direction of regulations in the future. This attitude may trigger developments such as relaxing SEC policies, accelerating ETF approval processes, and increasing public-private cooperation in next-generation stablecoin infrastructures.Trump's words ”I want crypto, because if we don't, China will," are not just a political outlet. This statement is a reemergence of the US's claim to leadership in the digital economy. While the world is talking about crypto, now the White House is also in this game.
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5 May 2025